GDP Growth Rates
Cycles and Swings
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GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted to remove fluctuations that occur around the same time and magnitude each year, ensuring that the remaining movements better reflect true economic activity. Factors influencing seasonal patterns include but are not limited to weather, holidays and production schedules.〔NSA: Non-Seasonally Adjusted & SA: Seasonally Adjusted〕
〔Q1 2026〕GDP: + 5.6%┃Real GDP: + 2.0% (Annualized Growth Rate; SA)
United States
Gross Domestic Product
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a specific period.
Also known as value added, GDP measures the value of goods and services produced by private industry and government, after subtracting the value of goods and services consumed in production.
Real GDP adjusts for inflation and reflects changes in the quantity of production, excluding the effects of price changes.
Changes in Real GDP indicate an economy’s authentic growth.
United Kingdom
〔Q4 2025〕GDP: + 0.6%┃Real GDP: + 0.1% (Quarter on Quarter Growth Rate; SA)
Quarter on Quarter Growth
QoQ (Quarter on Quarter) Growth measures the percentage change in GDP between one quarter and the preceding quarter, serving as an indicator of short-term momentum.
〔Q4 2025〕GDP: + 4.2%┃Real GDP: + 1.0% (Quarter on Quarter 4 Growth Rate; SA)
Quarter on Quarter 4 Growth
QoQ4 (Quarter on Quarter 4) Growth measures the percentage change in GDP between a given quarter and the same quarter in the previous year (4 quarters earlier). It captures the change over four quarters thus effectively representing YoY (year-over-year) growth in GDP.
〔Q1 2026〕Real GDP: + 0.1% Quarterly (SA)┃Real GDP: + 0.8% Annual (SA)
Euro Area (EA)
Limitations of GDP
While GDP is the main indicator of economic growth, it does not capture all sources of economic value.
(1) It excludes unpaid work like parental childcare.
(2) GDP doesn’t capture the broader aspects of a nation’s economic welfare. For example, if GDP increased by 3% in a year but the population grew by 4%, average GDP per person would decline. (3) GDP does not reveal how evenly national income is distributed across the population. Income may be shared broadly or concentrated in specific groups.
(4) GDP can rise due to activities that don’t improve wellbeing, such as rebuilding after natural disasters.
〔Q1 2026〕Real GDP: + 0.1% Quarterly (SA)┃Real GDP: + 1.0% Annual (SA)
European Union
EU and EA
The European Union (EU) is a unique economic and political union comprising 27 European countries. Its members collaborate to enhance the well-being of people across Europe, and even further afield.
27 EU Countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
The Euro area (Eurozone) is a subset of the European Union, consisting 21 of the EU countries that have adopted the euro (€) as their official currency.
Czechia, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden are 6 members of the European Union that do not use the euro as their official currency.
Canada
〔Q4 2025〕Real GDP: – 0.2% (Quarterly/QoQ Growth Rate; SA)
GDP by Expenditure
C: Household final consumption expenditure.
I: Gross private domestic investment and change in inventories.
G: Government final consumption expenditure and gross government domestic investment.
X: Exports of goods and services.
M: Imports of goods and services.
〔Q3 2025〕Real GDP: + 1.1% Quarterly (SA)┃Real GDP: – 0.5% Annual (SA)
New Zealand
QoQ Growth Rate
Quarterly Growth Rate is measured by the percentage change in real GDP between one quarter and the preceding quarter, serving as an indicator of short-term momentum.
YoY Growth Rate
Annual Growth Rate is measured by the percentage change in real GDP between a given quarter and the same quarter in the previous year, representing year-over-year growth rate.
Japan
〔Q3 2025〕GDP: – 0.1% Quarterly (SA)┃Real GDP: – 0.6% Quarterly (SA)
Nominal vs Real GDP
Nominal GDP measures the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country using current market prices for the period, thus influenced over time by changes in price levels.
Real GDP reflects the total value of all final goods and services produced using constant base-year prices (2015 for Japan), adjusted for inflation. It is the preferred measure for economists and policymakers, as its changes indicate real output growth.
Higher inflation leads to a greater divergence between Nominal and Real GDP.
〔Q4 2025〕Real GDP: + 0.8% Quarterly (SA)┃Real GDP: + 2.6% Annual (SA)
Australia
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